{"id":70,"date":"2013-03-04T10:56:36","date_gmt":"2013-03-04T10:56:36","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/?p=70"},"modified":"2013-03-26T09:01:39","modified_gmt":"2013-03-26T09:01:39","slug":"future-aint-what-it-used-to-be","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/future-aint-what-it-used-to-be\/","title":{"rendered":"El futur ja no \u00e9s el que era"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>Si hi ha una necessitat cont\u00ednua per a un professional multim\u00e8dia, \u00e9s la d\u2019intentar anticipar el futur: qu\u00e8 farem dem\u00e0; qu\u00e8 farem d\u2019aqu\u00ed a deu anys. Naturalment, aquest objectiu fa d\u00e8cades que es d\u00f3na. Considerem, per exemple, aquest v\u00eddeo del 1967 (<a href=\"http:\/\/kottke.org\/13\/02\/the-home-office-of-the-21st-century\" hreflang=\"en\">font<\/a>):<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Walter Cronkite in the Home Office of 2001 (1967)\" width=\"640\" height=\"480\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/V6DSu3IfRlo?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>Si hi ha una cosa que podem veure \u00e9s que preveure el futur (d\u2019aqu\u00ed a quaranta anys vista, ni m\u00e9s ni menys) \u00e9s una empresa complicada: fem curt o ens passem de llarg, i no \u00e9s gaire probable que l\u2019encertem amb precisi\u00f3.<\/p>\n<p>I \u00e9s que costa molt anticipar els efectes brutals de la <a href=\"https:\/\/es.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Ley_de_moore\" lang=\"es\">llei de Moore<\/a>:<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_71\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-71\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/files\/2013\/03\/640px-Evolution_34_365.jpg\" alt=\"Foto d'un iPhone i un enorme ordinador port\u00e0til de principis dels 80, d'uns 20 quilos de pes\" width=\"640\" height=\"426\" class=\"size-full wp-image-71\" srcset=\"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/files\/2013\/03\/640px-Evolution_34_365.jpg 640w, https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/files\/2013\/03\/640px-Evolution_34_365-300x199.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-71\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">L\u2019\u00faltima moda en tecnologia m\u00f2bil de principis dels vuitanta, l\u2019Osbourne Executive enfront de l\u2019iPhone del 2009. L\u2019iPhone, \u00e9s clar, \u00e9s molt m\u00e9s potent en tots els aspectes. Font: <a href=\"http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/File:Osborne_Executive_with_iPhone_in_2009.jpg\" hreflang=\"en\">http:\/\/en.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/File:Osborne_Executive_with_iPhone_in_2009.jpg<\/a>.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>No obstant aix\u00f2, per\u00f2, anticipar els canvis pot comportar un avantatge competitiu espectacular, de manera que gaireb\u00e9 ens veiem obligats a jugar a endevins. Per sort, tenim l\u2019avantatge que encara que sabem que l\u2019empresa \u00e9s gaireb\u00e9 inviable\u2026<\/p>\n<p>Tanmateix, anticipar els canvis pot suposar un avantatge competitiu espectacular, i aix\u00ed pr\u00e0cticament ens veiem obligats a jugar a ser endevins. Afortunadament, tenim l&#8217;avantatge que, tot i que sabem que l&#8217;empresa \u00e9s pr\u00e0cticamente inviable&#8230;<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_74\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-74\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/alexknapp\/2012\/03\/20\/ray-kurzweils-predictions-for-2009-were-mostly-inaccurate\/\" hreflang=\"en\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/files\/2013\/03\/kurz1.jpg\" alt=\"Captura web. Explicaci\u00f3 a continuaci\u00f3\" width=\"640\" height=\"617\" class=\"size-full wp-image-74\" srcset=\"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/files\/2013\/03\/kurz1.jpg 640w, https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/files\/2013\/03\/kurz1-300x289.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-74\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Article a <cite>Forbes<\/cite> que critica <i>a posteriori<\/i> algunes de les previsions de Ray Kurzweil, un dels \u201cfuturistes\u201d de m\u00e9s prestigi. Font:  <a href=\"http:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/alexknapp\/2012\/03\/20\/ray-kurzweils-predictions-for-2009-were-mostly-inaccurate\/\" hreflang=\"en\">http:\/\/www.forbes.com\/sites\/alexknapp\/2012\/03\/20\/ray-kurzweils-predictions-for-2009-were-mostly-inaccurate\/<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u2026 tamb\u00e9 \u00e9s f\u00e0cil defensar les prediccions que vam fer, si s\u00f3n prou imprecises:<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_75\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-75\" style=\"width: 640px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2012\/3\/22\/2893278\/ray-kurzweil-claims-2009-predictions-mostly-inarguably-accurate\" hreflang=\"en\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/files\/2013\/03\/kurz2.jpg\" alt=\"Captura web. Explicaci\u00f3 a continuaci\u00f3\" width=\"640\" height=\"573\" class=\"size-full wp-image-75\" srcset=\"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/files\/2013\/03\/kurz2.jpg 640w, https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/files\/2013\/03\/kurz2-300x268.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 640px) 100vw, 640px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-75\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">El mateix Ray Kurzweil defensa la precisi\u00f3 d\u2019aquestes mateixes prediccions en un article a <cite>The Verge<\/cite>. Font: <a href=\"http:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2012\/3\/22\/2893278\/ray-kurzweil-claims-2009-predictions-mostly-inarguably-accurate\"  hreflang=\"en\">http:\/\/www.theverge.com\/2012\/3\/22\/2893278\/ray-kurzweil-claims-2009-predictions-mostly-inarguably-accurate<\/a><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<figure id=\"attachment_77\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-77\" style=\"width: 550px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.smithsonianmag.com\/paleofuture\/2012\/01\/sunday-funnies-blast-off-into-the-space-age\/\" hreflang=\"en\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/files\/2013\/03\/smiths.jpg\" alt=\"Imatge d'un tebeo antic. Una persona utilitza un ordinador amb elements d'interf\u00edcie que recorden for\u00e7a a com s\u00f3n els ordinadors avui\" width=\"550\" height=\"369\" class=\"size-full wp-image-77\" srcset=\"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/files\/2013\/03\/smiths.jpg 550w, https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/files\/2013\/03\/smiths-300x201.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 550px) 100vw, 550px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-77\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">Podem repassar, per exemple, l\u2019article <a href=\"http:\/\/blogs.smithsonianmag.com\/paleofuture\/2012\/01\/sunday-funnies-blast-off-into-the-space-age\/\" hreflang=\"en\">Sunday funnies blast off into the Space Age<\/a>\u201d, aparegut el gener del 2012 en el blog <i lang=\"en\">Paleofuture<\/i> l\u2019Institut Smithsonian, que repassa la visi\u00f3 del segle XXI reflectida en algunes tires c\u00f2miques publicades a finals dels seixanta i principis dels setanta del segle XX\u2026<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>\u2026o repassar aquest anunci d\u2019un producte real del 1972, el Xerox Alto, un dels pocs productes comercialitzats (amb molt poc \u00e8xit comercial) pel centre de recerca i innovaci\u00f3 <a href=\"https:\/\/es.wikipedia.org\/wiki\/Xerox_PARC\" lang=\"es\">PARC de Xerox<\/a>.<\/p>\n<p>http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=m0zgj2p7ww4<\/p>\n<p>S\u2019ha de destacar que una de les moltes figures m\u00edtiques per a la hist\u00f2ria de la inform\u00e0tica i la manera amb qu\u00e8 hi interactuem, Alan Kay, va continuar (i continua) treballant a predir el futur de la manera m\u00e9s pr\u00e0ctica: inventant-lo.<\/p>\n<p>http:\/\/www.youtube.com\/watch?v=m0zgj2p7ww4<\/p>\n<figure id=\"attachment_76\" aria-describedby=\"caption-attachment-76\" style=\"width: 628px\" class=\"wp-caption alignnone\"><a href=\"http:\/\/www.futureofthebook.org\/blog\/archives\/2012\/04\/these_drawings_date_from_1982.html\" hreflang=\"en\"><img loading=\"lazy\" decoding=\"async\" src=\"http:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/files\/2013\/03\/MNH.jpg\" alt=\"Captura web. Explicaci\u00f3 a continuaci\u00f3\" width=\"628\" height=\"575\" class=\"size-full wp-image-76\" srcset=\"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/files\/2013\/03\/MNH.jpg 628w, https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/files\/2013\/03\/MNH-300x274.jpg 300w\" sizes=\"auto, (max-width: 628px) 100vw, 628px\" \/><\/a><figcaption id=\"caption-attachment-76\" class=\"wp-caption-text\">L&#8217;article <a href=\"http:\/\/www.futureofthebook.org\/blog\/archives\/2012\/04\/these_drawings_date_from_1982.html\" hreflang=\"en\">Back to the future &#8212; In honor of Encyclopedia Britannica giving up its print edition<\/a> repassa algunes de les clarividents prediccions d\u2019Alan Kay el 1982, quan treballava com a cient\u00edfic en cap a la companyia de videojocs Atari.<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>Com ser\u00e0 el futur? \u00c9s clar que no ho sabem. Com diu William Gibson, de fet ja \u00e9s aqu\u00ed, per\u00f2 mal distribu\u00eft. I perqu\u00e8 en quedi const\u00e0ncia, tanquem amb dos v\u00eddeos que expliquen com era el futur vist des dels primers anys del segle XXI:<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"A Day Made of Glass 2: Same Day. Expanded Corning Vision (2012)\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/jZkHpNnXLB0?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>D\u2019una banda, la visi\u00f3 de Corning (els fabricants del gorilla glass que protegeix les pantalles de molts dels tel\u00e8fons intel\u00b7ligents actuals) a <cite lang=\"en\">A Day Made of Glass 2<\/a>&#8230;<\/p>\n<p><iframe loading=\"lazy\" title=\"Microsoft Office Labs vision 2019\" width=\"640\" height=\"360\" src=\"https:\/\/www.youtube.com\/embed\/8Ff7SzP4gfg?feature=oembed\" frameborder=\"0\" allow=\"accelerometer; autoplay; clipboard-write; encrypted-media; gyroscope; picture-in-picture; web-share\" referrerpolicy=\"strict-origin-when-cross-origin\" allowfullscreen><\/iframe><\/p>\n<p>i de l\u2019altra la visi\u00f3 de Microsoft dels entorns d\u2019oficina d\u2019aqu\u00ed a uns anys.<\/p>","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>Si hi ha una necessitat cont\u00ednua per a un professional multim\u00e8dia, \u00e9s la d\u2019intentar anticipar el futur: qu\u00e8 farem dem\u00e0; qu\u00e8 farem d\u2019aqu\u00ed a deu anys. Naturalment, aquest objectiu fa d\u00e8cades que es d\u00f3na. Considerem, per exemple, aquest v\u00eddeo del 1967 (font): Si hi ha una cosa que podem veure \u00e9s que preveure el futur &hellip; <\/p>\n<p class=\"link-more\"><a href=\"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/future-aint-what-it-used-to-be\/\" class=\"more-link\">Continua llegint <span class=\"screen-reader-text\">\u00abEl futur ja no \u00e9s el que era\u00bb<\/span><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":4,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[10],"tags":[115,114,113],"class_list":["post-70","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-fundamentals","tag-historia","tag-innovacio","tag-innovacion","entry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/4"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=70"}],"version-history":[{"count":9,"href":"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":441,"href":"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/70\/revisions\/441"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=70"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=70"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/multimedia.uoc.edu\/blogs\/fem\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=70"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}